FULL TRANSCRIPT

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Slava Rubin (00:00)

In this episode of Smart Humans, we do our year in review and predictions for 2026. We have special guest co-founder Vincent, Adam Katz, and we talk about everything from pre-IPO venture and what's going to happen in the pre-IPO markets, as well as collectibles and art. Where are we headed with those really expensive collectibles and pieces of art? Next, we go through crypto and talk about what are the predictions for BTC and

and where we're headed. Will we hit lows? Will we hit highs? What is possible? And finally, we talk about real estate and which markets should you be investing in and which cities are you supposed to be bullish or bearish about? It's gonna be an exciting year ahead and we cover all of that and more in this episode.

Slava Rubin (01:14)

Hello and welcome to the latest episode of Smart Humans. In today's episode, I'm excited that we'll be talking about our predictions for 2026. 2025 was pretty crazy, lots to cover, but more important is what's happening next. With me today is special guest, Adam Katz, co-founder of Vincent. Welcome Adam.

Adam Katz (01:32)

Hey Slava, thanks for having me.

Slava Rubin (01:34)

Absolutely, so we're gonna dive right into it going through all the various asset classes. We're gonna start with pre-IPO, then we're gonna discuss collectibles and art. We're gonna talk about crypto and then finish off with real estate. So let's just, let's get into it.

Adam Katz (01:49)

Sounds good. So we're gonna start with pre-IPO. Obviously 2025 was a super interesting year. AI was the main story. But do you think that that's gonna be the main story going forward?

Slava Rubin (02:02)

Yeah, 2025 was interesting. mean, if you back up, IPOs really were frozen for a while. We had well over 100 awesome tech IPOs in 2021. You could really inflate that with the bubble from COVID. And then they just fell off a cliff. 2022, 2023, we have like no IPOs. We start seeing a few IPOs in 2024, definitely back into the dozens. And we have some more in 2025, some notable ones.

like CoreWeave, Figma, et cetera, I think we're about to see the massive unlock, basically like the next wave. For those of us that are old enough, we remember the wave that happened with Facebook. Everybody was waiting for that wave around social media and Facebook. That was a massive unlock. Then you get frozen for a while, and then everybody waited for that Uber, Airbnb unlock, and we've been pretty much frozen for a while until then. think...

we're about to have a huge wave of IPOs coming in 26. I can't guarantee that all of them are gonna happen in 26. I think it's more of a 18 to 24 month wave, but I do think a lot of that wave is already gonna happen in 26. So I do think it's gonna be very exciting.

Adam Katz (03:14)

What are some of the companies that you think could IPO this coming year or I guess in the next 18 to 24 months?

Slava Rubin (03:21)

Yeah, there's so many. You know, there's the big boys, there's SpaceX. Definitely, people are talking now with the $800 billion valuation. Elon says he's going to IPO. That is news when it hit the wire. I think it's like 23 years old. People thought that it would actually never IPO. And now Elon is saying it is going to IPO in 2026. So if I'm a betting man, I'm going to believe him.

Adam Katz (03:27)

Yeah.

Slava Rubin (03:50)

that it's gonna happen. There's some that are saying that it's not gonna happen at all. It's just talk. I'm not in that camp because I don't think that's really necessary for Elon to put those words out. again, not everything Elon says happens exactly in the timeline that he says. But I do think there's going to be a SpaceX IPO and I think it's going to be massive and very exciting. I I think in aggregate, we're probably gonna see a solid eight to 10 huge tech IPOs.

between the SpaceX's, the Anthropics, potentially OpenAI, even though I don't think that one's gonna happen, potentially Stripe, I don't think that one's gonna happen. I do think Databricks, I do think we can see Anduril I think there's the Canvas of the world, there's a lot of very interesting companies and there's also some smaller IPOs that can happen, whether it's like Turo or Goat or even Kraken, the crypto company probably will happen earlier in the year. Those are not as...

big, I think we're going to see easily $10 billion of IPO happening across eight to 10 massive companies.

Adam Katz (04:54)

With last year's IPOs, some of them were extremely successful. Some of them were less successful. Do you think that there's going to be any carryover from 2025 into 2026 or are these names just so big? mean, the names that you're dropping, know, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, these would be way bigger than any IPOs from last year. So if you got even one, let alone two or three, I mean, I think that that would kind of overshadow the entire market.

Slava Rubin (05:22)

I think it's actually be very bullish for the market. I think it's going to bring a lot of excitement because I do think there'll be some volatility. I think it has to be in the right verticals. I think the hot verticals are AI. So very specifically, let's call it anthropic. That's the one I'm really thinking is going to IPO in 2026. I think that defense like Anduril

Super exciting. think there's a high probability that they IPO in 2026. I Databricks, very connected to AI, super exciting opportunity. Now, if you are less connected to that stuff, if you're less into cybersecurity, if you're less into defense, if you're less into AI, I do think it becomes a little bit more challenging. For example, Chime actually IPO earlier this year and they're having bit of a tough road. Wealthfront just IPO, having a bit of a tough road.

I do think that we will see Plaid IPO in 2026. They're not my favorite to be jumping into. but I do think they'll IPO because I think FinTech is tough. I think people are not as excited with higher, these higher multiples with a company in that type of vertical. So I really think that overall it would be awesome. I am quite bullish. I don't know company by company.

⁓ If I had to pick only two, I would say get into Anthropic today, if you can. Get into SpaceX today, if you can. Both are hard. But I think that this wave of IPOs could be exciting.

Adam Katz (06:53)

Are there companies that you think might IPO or are IPO candidates that you would not want to try and get into beforehand?

Slava Rubin (07:02)

I mean, there's a lot of IPO candidates that I personally would not jump into. I already mentioned one, so I think Plaid is going to IPO. think Bolt will IPO there again in the kind of last mile perspective. Less interesting to me. know, one that probably will come out, it's uncertain how it will trade, could be like a Discord. It's uncertain if that will...

Adam Katz (07:28)

Okay.

Slava Rubin (07:31)

see a lot of pop like a Reddit, because Reddit's done quite well since it IPO'd, or if it's going to struggle because it doesn't have the AI halo. So these are just some examples out there. I really would try to focus my energy personally towards Anthropic and SpaceX. I think Databricks is a great company as well.

I think getting into Stripe would be good, but I don't think they're going to IPO right now. But I would personally be staying away from a more retail-y type of IPO, more of a straight SaaS type play. Those have the potential to struggle. Other areas that are doing really well again is like cybersecurity. There's potentially Snyk will come out. Let's see what happens with that. But CrowdStrike has been doing really well.

Adam Katz (08:16)

You've already kind of touched on this beyond the companies, the sectors. You know, last year, obviously AI, defense tech was big, cybersecurity was big. Do you see any kind of under the radar sectors coming this year? I mean, there's robotics, you know, anything that not necessarily companies, but just sectors that investors should be looking into this year and the coming years.

Slava Rubin (08:38)

Yeah, I think 2026 people are gonna get much more familiar with robotics. I don't think you're gonna see any robotics IPOs per se. I think there's gonna be ways to play robotics in the public markets like Tesla and other opportunities, whether it's ⁓ Apptronik or Figure, and there's others. I think there's going to be exciting opportunities to try to invest into those companies in the private markets. I don't think we'll be seeing that in IPOs. mean, just to back up a hair.

In the private markets, there are these monster rounds that are happening in pre-IPO, specifically in robotics and AI and defense. If you're not one of those three things, and I'll add a fourth, which is cybersecurity, if you're not one of those four things, actually VC is struggling. It is hard to raise capital. It is hard to have a venture fund. It is hard to raise capital. So those are the areas that aren't getting that pixie dust.

from that AI kind of robotics trade, they're struggling. So I would, I think that's gonna continue actually. You know, I actually think that the AI trade is gonna get more breadth. And what I mean by that is people are gonna be less looking to invest into straight AI foundational models like Anthropic, and they're gonna be looking at the companies that are really starting to benefit significantly from AI. I think you'll see that play out more in the public markets, where you're gonna start seeing

the public markets look and demand for those returns to show up and those profit margins expand because of AI. But I think it'll be tough to find that in the private markets, but they'll be looking for those enabling type companies where who's benefiting from AI beyond just being straight AI.

Adam Katz (10:16)

Okay, I mean, so my perspective is that, you know, some of these companies, OpenAI, Anthropic, they're, people know these companies. They're, they've gotten a lot more expensive in the last year. What are some sectors or some companies that might see that same kind of boost this year? And you're saying sort of not necessarily the AI models, but companies that could benefit from the AI halo. I mean, is there, what's

I'm just saying like, what's the next AI or is AI the next AI?

Slava Rubin (10:47)

I mean, AI somewhat is the next AI. I still think Anthropic has a long way to run. Personally, I'm in the camp, hot take here. I'm in the camp that Anthropic is a $5 trillion company in the making. Not this year in 2026, but in the making.

Adam Katz (11:03)

I mean that would make them the biggest company in the world.

Slava Rubin (11:06)

Right, right, right. I do think they have the potential to be a very big company. I'm obviously showing my hand here that I'm kind of more long, anthropic than am OpenAI, including with my own investments, partially because I think OpenAI, while actually bigger and more well known to the consumer, I think they have two issues. One, they're too widely spread across way too many fronts.

Adam Katz (11:16)

Mm-hmm.

Slava Rubin (11:29)

They're not really focused like Anthropic. And two, I think their governance with their nonprofit structure and all of the related things has a lot of confusion. So I think if they could have, they would IPO in 2026. But I think they have a lot of work to do to clean that all up, to make themselves look clean for a public markets IPO. So I don't think that will actually happen in 2026. Now I do think that there's

You know, it's kind of weird to say this because it's already been trendy, but I think defense and robotics is going to catch up as the next AI to the public. Like a lot of regular people know about anthropic and open AI now. Not most regular people don't really know about robotics companies yet. And I do think it'll be much more normal for them to be aware of them existing.

this time next year, which I think is going to be a big shift, quite a bit. And I also think similarly, sadly, the world is still in turmoil. There's a lot of geopolitics. There's a lot of conflict. I think as defense becomes more digital, people will become more aware of interesting defense companies beyond kind of your grandfather's defense company.

Adam Katz (12:49)

Sure, yeah, I do think that Anduril will definitely be more of a household name this time next year.

Slava Rubin (12:55)

Exactly. So Anduril especially if they IPO, I can see them kind of being almost like a Palantir style name that people trade. I don't know if they'll have as much revenue growth to play off of as Palantir, but then again, Palantir is a bit more mature to have that. But I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes like Robin Hood Darling.

Adam Katz (13:16)

Last question. Are there some smaller companies that you would recommend investors take a look at, know, whether in these particular verticals, whether it's, know, an Apptronik or Shield AI, or even a company in not one of these sectors, you know, quantum computing or something just a little more under the radar that may not be something that breaks out in 2026. Maybe we're talking 2027, 2028 long-term.

Slava Rubin (13:46)

Yeah, I mean, you mentioned a couple of them.

There's always interesting companies to look at in cybersecurity. There's always interesting companies to look at at defense. It's hard for me to say who's gonna be the next breakout because there's a lot of different viewpoints, but I do think that if you have a long time horizon and you're willing to go to zero and know that you failed or you wanna have a monster up,

I think going after robotics is very interesting. So, you know, the really expensive player there would be figure. So figure is already worth like $39 billion with their last valuation. You know, they're going after like world domination, trying to become a trillion dollar company. So if you come in at 40 billion, a trillion is still a 25 X. So that's exciting. But I do think an Apptronik with their connection to Google.

which is less known, last trading at below 2 billion, but rumored to have a $5 billion valuation around the horizon, so probably a $5 billion entry point. Again, if you can get a trillion dollar company potentially for $5 billion, that's pretty insane. It could become a zero, but I do think if you have a little YOLO money, I will probably put it into robotics and see what happens five years from now.

Adam Katz (15:03)

Great, I mean, it's pre-IPO, it is high risk, reward. So, you you've got to be prepared to go to zero and hopefully you'll get some exponential gains.

Slava Rubin (15:13)

Absolutely, I think 2026. I know I keep repeating myself, but I can't promise it's going to happen in January or in February, but I think it has the opportunity to be the first half or a major part of a huge wave here that happens.

Okay, awesome. So that covers our pre-IPO topics for 2026. Now let's shift to collectibles. So Adam, you game to talk about collectibles.

Adam Katz (15:40)

Absolutely.

Slava Rubin (15:42)

Awesome, so I know you had a lot of great predictions last year at this time. Many of them came correct. Some of them may be a bit sideways. So how did you see 2025 play out in the world of collectibles and art?

Adam Katz (15:53)

Well, we'll start with art. It was a pretty strong rebound by the end of the year. The fall sales were better than expected. There were some massive, massive sales. I mean, you had a Klimt painting that became the most expensive work of modern art ever. You had a Frida Kahlo that was the most expensive work ever by a woman artist. The art fairs were strong. Art Basel Miami was huge to close the year. We saw

the mid-market, low-market stuff, see more demand, younger collectors are getting in. I think there's a lot of good spillover from how strong the economy was at the top end of the market. You know, with the stock market gains, there are going to be more people that have a little bit more money to spend on things like art. Art tends to be a lot more correlated with how well the economy is doing and how well the stock market is doing.

Um, because it's going to be people that have discretionary income to spend on these things. Um, I mean, there was a, a $10 million gold toilet. Like that says it all right there. Um, I, that was in the fall. I actually saw it in person. It was pretty fun. Um, so I think for 2026, you're going to see more of the same, know, I mean, it's been a steady rebound. was definitely a bottoming out a few years ago.

Slava Rubin (17:01)

When was that?

Okay.

Adam Katz (17:16)

And 2025 was a good solid rebound year. think you're going to see more of the same. I think as long as the stock market continues to do well, the art market will continue to rebound. I do think that one factor that could be, it's not as big a deal as some of the other macro factors, but the crypto market is, you you saw last year, was the, you know, multimillion dollar banana that was bought by a crypto guy.

And because crypto was pumping, crypto had, we'll get to that next, but know, was, Bitcoin was down on the year. It's, been recovering a little bit. Like how well is that going to do? If it does really well, I think you're going to see some spillover in art. If it doesn't do as well, I don't think it's going to affect the market that much, but it is something to keep an eye on. I do think that there's going to be a pretty robust market for five and six figure artworks. People who are starting their collections.

You know wealthy people who are starting their collections, and I think that you're starting to see this great wealth transfer from from the boomers down to Gen X and eventually to the Millennials You're seeing a lot of estate sales. You're seeing a lot of I mean, this is where the Klimt came from you're seeing a lot of very very high-value artwork that's gonna get transferred and If the auction houses can do a good job managing that supply it should do well. You don't want a

glut of these things and have them not sell. But as long as they're spaced out and you have these kind high profile sales, it's good for the market. It's good for publicity and it gets more people interested.

Slava Rubin (18:53)

So overall you sound somewhat positive for 26. Is that fair for art?

Adam Katz (18:57)

Yeah, I would say slightly bullish. I don't think it's going to be a breakout year. I don't think it's going to be margin. I think it may be marginally better than 25, which was a good year. You know, not a plus. We're not talking like pandemic frothy kind of market, but I think solid gains, which is what which is good. And it's it's what people are looking for.

Slava Rubin (19:20)

And are there specific artists that you would recommend to lean into for 26 or do think that 26 might break out?

Adam Katz (19:28)

I think that I don't have specific artists. I think if you've got YOLO money, to use your term from the last section, ultra contemporary artists have seen their markets crash in the last couple of years. They didn't really recover last year, but you have to expect it will happen sometime, especially the more prominent ones. And you can look at people who getting exhibited at major museums. You can look at...

who's selling at art fairs, things like that. It's sort of like prospects in collectibles and sports. And I do think maybe it's not this year, maybe it's not even next year, but there will be a recovery of that market at some point, especially as the market becomes younger.

Slava Rubin (20:10)

Nice. Any other thoughts for where you'd focus with art in 26?

Adam Katz (20:17)

Now I think we can move on to collectibles.

Slava Rubin (20:20)

Amazing. So talk to me about what you saw in 25. That was interesting.

Adam Katz (20:25)

25, you know, we had like with every year there are massive sales. We had the most expensive comic book ever sold. It was like $9 million for Superman one. We had the most expensive sports card ever, which was a Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, dual logo man card. It sold for almost 13 million. You know, there were some big entertainment memorabilia sales that were big.

Pokemon sales,  WNBA cards broke out both in value but also in like just the amount that are getting graded. I think more than double got graded than the year before. You're seeing, I think, a broadening of the collectibles market. It's not just sports cards. not just sports memorabilia. It's not just, you know, the mainstays. You're seeing, you know, it's not just watches and luxury items.

I think you're seeing it broaden out and so that you see that truly unique items, regardless of whether it's a music memorabilia thing or an entertainment memorabilia thing, I think they're seeing a lot of demand, especially at the high end of the market. So that I think was the story of 2025 for me.

Slava Rubin (21:39)

And how do you translate that for 2026? What do you see happening? Where do you position yourself?

Adam Katz (21:44)

I think that you're going to see that trend continue for sure. It's something that we talked about last year and in the same podcast and happened in 2025. I think it'll continue to happen in 2026. You know, it is an old tale, but scarcity, desirability, that's what drives these things because there aren't inherent value to collectibles. It's all about desirability.

And if you have the one thing that nobody else can have, that's going to lead to bidding wars. It's going to lead to, especially when you have more and more money pouring into the market. For everyday investors, I think you're looking at broader trends, women's sports cards. think 2026 is going to see a lot more demand for soccer with the World Cup coming to the US. mean, that's already started. Messi cards have

become more expensive. You've seen a pop in those in anticipation of this because, know, ⁓ I think people are, people are expecting there to be a lot of excitement over the World Cup, but I think they're underestimating it. It's going to be crazy. The two months this summer with the World Cup in the U S. So I think that's going to bring a lot of eyeballs to soccer, a lot of eyeballs to soccer players, soccer memorabilia. I think that that's going to be.

one of the most interesting things to look at in the collectible space this year.

Slava Rubin (23:08)

And beyond the World Cup, are there any other major trends or events to look out for for 26 to try to play around for collectibles?

Adam Katz (23:17)

I personally, I I talked about him last year, Victor Wembanyama, Wemby. He's on his way, if not already the most impactful basketball player in the world. His market has exploded. And, you know, if he stays healthy, which is a big if, they're definitely contenders to win the title. And if, if they make the finals or they win the finals, I mean, his market is going to explode. He's an international player from France. It's got, he's got global appeal. He's

super young, he could be the best player in the NBA for the next decade. And collectors are definitely responding to that. Shohei Ohtani obviously, the biggest baseball player in the world, and just won the World Series again. Those two, I think, are the biggest names. Caitlin Clark had a down year. She was hurt. I could see a recovery there. ⁓

Slava Rubin (23:59)

Funny

enough, she's like the first American you mentioned. Looks like, know, Messi's from Argentina, Wembanyama's from France, Shohei's from Japan. It's just like really interesting.

Adam Katz (24:02)

Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, I think, I mean,

I mean, collecting is going global. that's where we're going with this. We're going to have, I mean, you just look at Ohtani's stuff. It's not just Americans who are interested in that. Like his market in Japan is enormous.

Slava Rubin (24:24)

Speaking of Japan, just heard about the, what is it, Logan Paul is looking to sell his massive Pokemon card. What do you think?

Adam Katz (24:30)

Pokemon?

Yeah, well, that's the other thing is Pokemon, you know, the card ladder Pokemon index doubled last year. The number of Pokemon cards that were graded were, I think it was like 16 million or something. I don't remember the exact number, but it was a crazy amount and a huge increase. Pokemon is big, especially among the younger generations, which are just getting into collecting or just starting to get disposable income. And yeah, Logan Paul is selling something that

will probably end up being the most expensive Pokemon card ever. I think it doesn't end up hammering until I think March, maybe like mid February. ⁓

Slava Rubin (25:07)

What's the prediction

on the, did he buy it for five?

Adam Katz (25:11)

I think he bought it for like three and he's hoping to get five or he thinks it's going to be minimum five, maybe 10. And obviously that's going to bring a lot of attention to the space. don't, I wouldn't say I'm bearish on Pokemon at all, but I'm not sure that it's going to double again this year. That's a big ask. But I do think that it should.

continue to get a lot of attention.

Slava Rubin (25:35)

With my kids as a proxy, I'm still very bullish on Pokemon. I'm not saying it's gonna double either. I think that is super fast growth, but close your eyes 10 years from now, I Pokemon's up a lot, a lot.

Adam Katz (25:46)

Yeah.

I think one other interesting thing that is related is just sort of the slow churn of the generational interests, Things, luxury items like watches, wine, handbags, jewelry, they had a relatively difficult 2025, not as difficult as 2024. know, wine and watches were down double digits in 2024, down more like five.

percent in 2025. But I don't see as much interest from the younger generations in those items. And perhaps they will develop those interests as they get older. But, you know, things like Pokemon, things like, you know, collectibles, I think are of more interest right now. And I think you're you're starting to maybe see a shift from certain sectors to other sectors that could continue in 2026.

Slava Rubin (26:43)

Awesome. Any other final comments you want to add for 26?

Adam Katz (26:46)

No, I think we can move into crypto.

Slava Rubin (26:49)

⁓ actually I'll ask you one question just to put you on the spot. So Victor Wembanyama Shohei Ohtani, kind of obvious. ⁓ Give me a hot take on who you think a year from now, I'm not gonna call as the next Victor Wembanyama, because that's not fair. But who do you think is the next up and comer that is a bit of a surprise for the random person listening that wow, this person became so popular is now worth so much more?

Adam Katz (26:51)

Sure. Yeah.

Yes.

I mean, I think that coming into the season, you might say Cooper Flagg, who's the presumptive rookie of the year, his team's not very good. I don't think that it's gonna be a big year for his market, but he's somebody to keep an eye on down the road. He's not quite the prospect that Wemby is, but he's pretty generational. And when his team starts getting good, and-

As you said, he's like the great American hope. And he's only 18. And so there's a lot of room.

Slava Rubin (27:47)

Awesome. Love the hot take. I'm pretty bullish on Flagg. All let's dive into crypto.

Adam Katz (27:54)

So Bitcoin was down in 2025, a bit of a surprise. It hit an all-time high and then it just sort of dissipated from there. What do you think is going to happen this year? Are we in for another all-time high? Are we in for a crypto winter? know, and obviously there's a lot of other topics to discuss besides Bitcoin, but that is the dominant crypto. And so I think we should start there.

Slava Rubin (28:24)

Yeah, I think 25 for crypto and Bitcoin was really interesting. You get Trump in office, a lot of excitement, numbers started going up, then you get Liberation Day, things really drop. It's really tied to macro, there's really the basement trade. You see gold in line with that, and then it kind of separates because Bitcoin struggles towards the end of the year after it reaches an all-time high of 120 in the 120s.

But gold just keeps on going up 60 % up for the year, which is pretty interesting when you see Bitcoin down a little bit. So it's interesting to see that comparison. Then the question is kind of why. Some other amazing stuff that happens is with Trump in office, you now have some massive acts passed, including the the genius act. So setting up the foundation for some incredible stuff potentially happening for stablecoin. I think stablecoin is this ⁓ hidden trend that

the normal person just isn't quite listening to enough yet that I think it's going to be a massive, massive wave moving forward. And I think you already see that happening in 26. But with Bitcoin, you know, I think it follows traditionally coming out in 2008, kind of this four year cycle, three years up, one year down. It's not always calendar years where it's January one to January one. But I think we might have reached that three year end of the three year cycle hitting those 120s in the fall.

And sadly, we might be in a down year right now. So I wouldn't be surprised to see volatility a lot of sideways. I wouldn't be surprised. right now in the low nineties as we speak and produce this. We've seen the eighties. I wouldn't be surprised to see the seventies and we might touch. We might touch a six handle. We might see a sixties. I'm not going to bet all my money on that, but it would not surprise me.

that we touch that. Now I do think we can finish later in the year, definitely in the second half, probably the last quarter. I still think we might reach an all time high. If I was gonna put some parameters, I think we're gonna see 65 to 140. So that's.

Adam Katz (30:33)

It's a pretty big

range. If you look at the current prediction market odds, Kalshi, Polymarket, they think, not they, not the markets, but traders think that there's about a 50-50 chance it's going to hit 120 this year, but also about a 50-50 chance it's going to hit 65.

Slava Rubin (30:35)

Yeah, it is a big thing.

Adam Katz (30:57)

In line with you, know, that that's just a massive amount of volatility. I'm to put you on the spot though. Which is more likely? Which is, which do you think is more likely to happen in 2026 that it hits into the sixties or that it hits another all time high, which would be, you know, one 27 or what?

Slava Rubin (31:14)

I would say more likely is the 60s.

Adam Katz (31:22)

Wow, okay, okay.

Slava Rubin (31:24)

That doesn't

mean I don't believe in an all time high in 2026. I think it is possible. I just think it will happen later in the year, because I think we have to go through a little bit of the volatility of this one year down in a traditional three years up, one year down. Now you could just say, I call bullshit on that. That's just nonsense. Who cares about history? But I think it does follow a bit of that wave.

Adam Katz (31:49)

If you are, I know and you're not a trader and you're not a short-term investor, if you were to give advice to investors, is it just hold, just buy and hold Bitcoin or wait until it drops to the 60s or?

Slava Rubin (32:04)

I've always

said that. So since I've been getting into Bitcoin, since people have been asking for my advice for crypto, I'm all about dollar cost averaging in. Don't overthink it on price. Just keep on, don't put all your money at one price. Keep on putting in more money, you know, on a regular frequency, whether it's once a week, once a month, once a quarter, once a year, however you think about it. Just keep on putting in more money to keep on dollar cost averaging your price in. And yeah, I mean,

when things just drop 10 % or something in a day or a week, just consider that on sale. Could it drop another 10 %? Absolutely. Are you gonna call yourself a fool for not getting that extra 10 % down when you previously bought? I don't think that's the right way to think about it. Because if you're a trader, that's annoying. But if you're holding it for another decade, I think it's just another way of purchasing some more. So absolutely, I look at that as an opportunity to get some stuff on sale. You just saw that recently.

when we went down from our highs all the way down to the high 70s and there was an opportunity right there and now it's already back to the low 90s, which, know, just right there you have a 20 % up, which is lovely, right? I'm not saying you should monetize that. I think there's an opportunity to keep just on holding, but yeah, I'm all about the buy and hold. Now I'm referring to the top tokens, right? I'm referring to the top cryptos. I'm referring to

the things that I believe will exist and have a lot of value a decade from now. That is Bitcoin, that is Ethereum, that's potentially Solana. You know, I'm talking about the top 20 tokens. Once you get below that, I think you have a lot of volatility. Once you get into the YOLO world of crypto, I think we're in really bad shape. I think you can get into, you know, full on zeros. You can go from, I thought I got in at five cents, or I thought I got in at one fifth of a cent.

or I thought I got in $5, that could all become zero 10 years from now. I do not believe that's the case for the Ethereums, Solanas and Bitcoins of the world. I think they will exist and I think they'll be very powerful. My advice high level on how to invest into crypto, I think you take 100 % of your crypto basket, which I believe should be somewhere between 1 % to 5 % of all of your net worth. And you take that 100 % and you put 50 % of it into Bitcoin.

40 % of it into L1s and 10 % into YOLO. The L1s are layer ones that all the other applications are being built on. This is the decentralized compute. I would just keep on averaging them out based on who are the best ones every quarter or every year. Right now those are Ethereum and Solana. put most of that in there, but you could also get into some Hedera, some Polkadot, some others.

You can really just balance that out. But that's how I would think about investing into crypto. But I do think, sadly, that I think 26, while pre IPO is going to potentially have as bullish of a year possible from an IPO perspective, think crypto will be quite volatile and challenging.

Adam Katz (35:06)

Okay. And you mentioned.

Slava Rubin (35:08)

Could be a great entry point to start building the base.

Adam Katz (35:11)

Makes sense. You mentioned stable coins and how they're poised to become an even greater part of the ecosystem, both the crypto ecosystem and also the financial ecosystem in 2026. coins, what tokens are going to benefit from that? How can investors, you you're not going to go and buy a ton of USDC hoping that it's going to go up in value because it's stuck at one. So how can investors take advantage of

the stable coin revolution.

Slava Rubin (35:39)

Yeah, so I think stable coins, people aren't gonna really talk about stable coins per se. I just think stable coins are gonna be layered into the infrastructure of how like Visa works or how Stripe works or how your bank does payments or how different transaction happens. And I think it's gonna bring down the cost and speed up the time. And all of that's gonna be so good like AI. It's gonna be so obvious.

that people are just use more more stable coin and demand more of that functionality. They're not gonna say, give me stable coins. They're just gonna demand for that functionality at that speed, at that price point, which is just gonna mean more stable coin infrastructure. I think that the Solanas and the Ethereum's are gonna benefit the most from the demand for stable coin because they're the ones who are helping to set that all up. I do think...

There's others that you can invest into, but I do think that's where a lot of the benefit accrues at this, let's call it the lay investor level. Obviously there's more crypto specific nuance to all that, but I'm trying to keep it a little bit more basic. I do think stable coin this time next year, huge, huge momentum.

Adam Katz (36:43)

Sure, sure.

What do you think of, I mean, two things that came to the forefront in 2025 were tokenization, tokenization of rural world assets and digital asset treasuries, that's two different things. But I'm just curious where you think they're gonna go in 2026, how investors can take advantage or if investors should avoid.

Slava Rubin (37:12)

I'm really happy you brought those up. So DATS, Digital Asset Treasuries, feels like the new acronym instead of SPACs. So SPACs in 2020, 2021, so many SPACs, so much excitement. It was kind of quote unquote obvious that a lot of them were garbage and people predicted that might all pop and you know what happened? It actually popped. But some of those companies were actually good companies.

Adam Katz (37:21)

Okay. Yeah.

Well, yes.

Slava Rubin (37:41)

And some of those just happened to navigate through a SPAC infrastructure and they were just solid companies. So I think it's the same thing with DATs. I think that DATs got exciting. It became way too many DATs. People predicted we were in a bubble. That bubble has already started to pop, if not fully popped. And I think we're going to look back at DATs and be like, dude, that was like way too many DATs. And 95 % of them.

you know, are kind of garbage. I do think though we're going to have a few debts that are totally worthwhile and is an interesting way of getting into crypto via the public markets, which has its pros and cons and there's certain institutions or certain people that just want to play it this way. And that's an interesting way to do it. Plus they get to use leverage. They can also do mining. There's different ways that that's can make money.

So I do think 95 % of them will implode or have imploded and 5 % of them, you know, you have to be picky and choosy. You really have to kind of pick your right stock sort of thing.

Adam Katz (38:47)

And what do you think about tokenization?

Slava Rubin (38:50)

I think tokenization is a lot of hype still. I am a huge fan of the concept. Personally, I've been involved with tokenization of real world assets going back to 2017. I actually worked on personally when I was at Indiegogo bringing forward the Aspen, sorry, the St. Regis Hotel in Aspen, Colorado to be tokenized as a real world asset where we sold off about one sixth of the asset.

and tokenize it onto the blockchain so you can now even trade it today. know, fast forward eight years later, that ticker symbol, that token is still available. It hasn't seen a ton of trading just because it is a security token. It doesn't really move a lot. It's much less speculative, so not as exciting. I do think tokenization as an infrastructure, again, like stable coins, can lower costs and speed up transactions.

I think it is gonna take a little bit more time and effort. So I'm not as bullish. I'm not as long for 2026. I am long a decade out. I'm not saying 2026 is the year of crescendo. Like I am saying for stable.

Adam Katz (40:01)

Okay, well to finish off, I'm gonna put you on the spot.

Slava Rubin (40:05)

Okay.

Adam Katz (40:06)

One year from now, what is Bitcoin's price at?

Slava Rubin (40:11)

Bitcoin is... early January Bitcoin is one high 120s.

Adam Katz (40:13)

We'll see how close you get.

Okay, okay, so it will be higher than it has ever been before in one year. Barely okay.

Slava Rubin (40:29)

Barely, barely.

It will be hovering right there wanting to break the all time high, if not have broken in and fallen below it.

Adam Katz (40:36)

Okay.

Sure. Okay. Great. Well, thanks Lava. can move on to real estate.

Slava Rubin (40:43)

Yeah, let's do it. So in the real estate world, what did you think of 2025?

Adam Katz (40:49)

I think that 2025 was pretty close to what at least I expected and what we talked about last year. You know, we started the year, mortgage rates were in the low sevens. We got rate cuts and now they're sort of in the low sixes, which is maybe a little lower than people thought. People might've thought more like mid sixes, but I expected it to be about this. There weren't.

huge surprises with the rate cuts or how mortgage rates reacted to them. Home prices are up, but they're sort of lagging inflation now only up a couple of percent. It's been kind of a slow rebound in a lot of sectors, but

I think that for residential, it's going to continue to be very slow home growth, slow market activity. You're going to see maybe a little, a little bump in housing sales. Right now it's definitely a buyer's market. There's a lot of inventory out there. There's a lot of sellers, not as many buyers as mortgage rates go down a little bit and as incomes and

Inflation sort of outpace housing costs. It becomes more affordable relatively And I think that's gonna bring more buyers into the market This is you know, a little bit of what we expected last year. I think it's gonna be more so this year You have kind of lower demand higher supply The housing market has a longer lag than the other markets we talked about because it's not a liquid tradable market so

It takes longer for things to react. So right now, because supply is a little high, demand is a little low, construction, like new construction has gone down. That's home builders reacting to that market. And so eventually, you know, in the next year or two, that will affect supply and supply will go down again. And with mortgage rates, probably going to be, you know, half a point to a point lower this time next year, affordability is going to be better.

your dollar's gonna go further, demand's gonna go up. So it's gonna, you know, it's always going back to an equilibrium. Right now, it's tilted towards buyers. By this time next year, it might be more neutral.

Slava Rubin (43:13)

You mentioned rates. We kind of stayed away from that topic in this whole discussion, which I think is actually hard to avoid because of how much of an impact it will have. What are your thoughts on where the rates are headed? I mean, it's kind of uncertain, especially what Trump's going to do with a new Fed chairman. So where's your head at with where rates are headed?

Adam Katz (43:32)

Yeah.

I think it's very difficult to predict confidently. I think in a normal situation with a normal administration, we could probably expect a similar year, you know, somewhere between two and four rate cuts. I know that, you know, if Jerome Powell was in charge all of 2026, I would be confident to say we'd probably get two to four rate cuts.

That being said, he's not going to be, and we don't know who is going to be, and we don't know what's going to happen there. So I think in terms of predicting it, you know, kind of stay even. I mean, I think most likely whoever gets appointed is going to be more aggressive with the cuts. So if anything,

Slava Rubin (44:18)

What do you consider

the baseline? Do you consider baseline four cuts?

Adam Katz (44:21)

I think maybe three.

Slava Rubin (44:23)

Okay, so if the baseline is three cuts and you get an aggressive chairman, you get six cuts, what happens?

Adam Katz (44:30)

I think that definitely you're gonna see mortgage rates go down and get back to a point. We're almost at a point, I mean, the way this works is so many people who have mortgages have them from years and years ago, and then they have it at 3%, 4%. And so it becomes difficult to then sell that house, buy a new house at 7 % because that's just gonna be a massive difference in your monthly payment.

And so a lot of these people are kind of like locked into where they live. I think something like only 30 % of people have mortgages over 5 % right now. So it's just not, you know, the market has kind of been stalled because of that. And specifically talking about the residential market. And so as the rates come down, when, the rates get down to five, people who are at five are fine selling. And then people who are at four, it's...

much less of a difference. So you're going to see a lot more activity. And not just that, because it's cheaper, like cheaper borrowing costs, more people are going to be able to afford more house, bigger houses, more expensive houses. And so you're going to get more demand, you're going to get more demand from sellers, and it's going to kind of jumpstart the market. So if you see six cuts, I think that the housing market's going to

going to be a lot more active this time next year.

Slava Rubin (45:55)

So for the real estate market, that'd be very bullish.

Adam Katz (45:59)

Yes.

Slava Rubin (46:01)

Got it. And then what verticals inside of real estate, which ones do you like, which ones do you not like for 26?

Adam Katz (46:08)

talking about commercial or just within real estate.

Slava Rubin (46:13)

Just within real estate, yeah. Which ones do you like? Yeah.

Adam Katz (46:17)

Sure.

Well, we haven't touched on commercial really yet, but I think for 2025, it had a very nice and slow recovery. know, we've definitely saw, not definitely, but it seems that we've seen the bottoming out of like the office market. You know, that has been on the upswing, both in leasing numbers, price per square foot numbers, sales numbers. They're still well below the peak.

but they're higher than they were at the bottom. And I think that's going to continue. think you have industrial has been a pretty solid player. It, it's momentum slowed a little bit in 2025, but I think 2026 is going to be a good year for industrial. Retail has been pretty solid, generally pretty strong. We talked about this last year that there'd be a slow recovery and that's pretty much what happened with the housing market. We,

talked about last year that it was gonna be a very slow market activity. Home price growth would stay low, you know, a couple of percent, rents are mostly flat. I think you're gonna see a lot of that same stuff going forward. And so for me personally, I think that multifamily is going to be the play for investors this year. I personally am looking to put more money into multifamily. I think that

Slava Rubin (47:38)

Most

multi family is your favorite.

Adam Katz (47:40)

Multifamily is my favorite. Real estate is different. We're not gonna see like a massive pop in 2026, but I think now is the time to get in before things start to shift. We're still in a buyer's market. I think this time next year, we're probably gonna be in a neutral market and if rates get cut massively, maybe we're even gonna be in a seller's market. So I think now is the time to get in before these kind of market dynamics change. I think that affordability is...

better for buyers right now. So now is the time where you can maybe get some deals. Sellers might be wanting to get out of their inventory. I think multifamily, which is generally apartment buildings, and especially in core metro areas, New York, Chicago, LA, San Francisco, I think that that's my number one. That's my number one, yeah.

Slava Rubin (48:25)

You look, guys.

So you like New York, you like Chicago, you like...

Adam Katz (48:31)

I always like New York, but I think that five years from now, and you know, when you're looking at real estate, it should always be a five year outlook. think five years from now, people are going to think like, wow, the things I could have gotten in New York in 2026, I wish I had gotten it.

Slava Rubin (48:50)

That's really smart. So you like multifamily, you like industrial. So you mentioned ⁓ retail and office. You like a little bit less, is that right?

Adam Katz (49:00)

I I think those are very difficult for individual investors anyway. I personally would not touch anything in those sectors. I think that they're going to be fine, but it's a much more difficult thing to project and it's a lot riskier.

Slava Rubin (49:15)

You already mentioned four specific cities that you like. If I put you on the spot this time next year, what are the two cities you like the most?

Adam Katz (49:23)

New York. And I'm going to go with San Francisco. I'm biased because I'm from there. But I think that the recovery in, you know, I mean, it's a lot because of AI and AI companies. But you're seeing like the economy in the Bay Area has recovered significantly. Even like office leasing is going back up. I think demand for housing is way up. think that San Francisco or not just San Francisco, but the Bay Area, the San Francisco Bay Area.

Slava Rubin (49:24)

and

Adam Katz (49:52)

be number two.

Slava Rubin (49:53)

It's remarkable how AI has totally changed the game for San Francisco the town. ⁓ Give me two geographies that you do not like, that you're quite bearish on for 26.

Adam Katz (49:59)

Yeah.

Sure. mean, I think that this is pretty, you know, this has been hammered home a lot. And so it's not like a hot take and it's not particularly original take, but Texas, Florida, a lot of the Sunbelt metros, the supply went way up. Florida has its own set of issues with the weather and insurance issues. would, I would stay far away from Florida, the entire state. And

Slava Rubin (50:28)

like the entire state.

Adam Katz (50:34)

⁓ Texas, know, especially the major cities, Austin, things like that. Austin, Dallas, Houston. A lot of supply. A lot of people wanted to move there during the pandemic, but you haven't seen that kind of demand since then. I think that you're going to still see rents go down there. think you're going see prices go down. I think at some point there will be buying opportunities. I'm just not sure that this is the year for that.

Slava Rubin (50:55)

That's a hot take, so you're bearish on all Florida and all Texas.

Adam Katz (51:00)

generally, yeah, but also in real estate.

Slava Rubin (51:01)

All right, awesome.

No, I got you. Any other comments that you want to summarize for real estate for the year?

Adam Katz (51:09)

⁓ Just emphasize that I think 2026 is going to be a good year to buy. I think that this time next year, a lot of those opportunities that are here now aren't necessarily going to be there.

Slava Rubin (51:21)

Awesome, thank you Adam. So just to summarize, sounds like pre-IPO could be pretty bullish with the IPOs that are coming if you're a big company. Earlier stage might be a little bit tougher. Sounds like collectibles a bit choppy. Hopefully you have some amazing scarce things. Real estate sounds like you are feeling like the floor is in, pretty excited. And crypto seems like a bit choppy. So you gotta pick your assets. You gotta figure out where you wanna get in.

It's gonna be a dynamic year. We got a potential new Fed Chairman. Who knows what's gonna happen in terms of geopolitics. yeah, it's definitely, it's January here as we produce this. So it's pretty fascinating what's gonna happen in the next 360 days. So thank you, Adam, for joining.

Adam Katz (52:08)

Thanks for having me Slava.

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