*as of 5/29; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

(Redfin)

U.S. home sellers are now outnumbering buyers by nearly 500,000, and the 34% gap between the two is the highest since at least 2013, which means that it is now officially a buyer’s market. Five of the top six markets with the greatest discrepancy between sellers and buyers come in Florida, with Miami, West Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale being the best buyer’s markets in the country. The strongest seller’s markets are all in the Northeast, led by Newark, NJ, Nassau County, NY, and Montgomery County, PA.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The combination of high mortgage rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty has shifted the power in the market to buyers. Generally, when this happens, prices fall, and that is the expectation for the remainder of the year. Of course, as with all real estate investing, the specific market is more important than national trends.

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In this episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Vintage Investment Partners founder Alan Feld about managing $4.5 billion, the venture capital market, finding great managers, and the importance of thinking long-term when investing.

🏃‍♂️ Elon leaving the administration: The world’s richest man has decided to leave the government and his DOGE ambitions to head back into the private sector, which should boost the prospects of both his public company Tesla and his startups like SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink.

🏡 Pending sales still falling: U.S. pending home sales fell 6.5% in April and are down 2.5% year-over-year, with the Midwest the only region showing positive annual growth.

🤖 OpenAI IPO?: OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar discussed the startup’s plans to restructure the business from a non-profit to a public benefit corporation and said this change will make it possible for the company to pursue an IPO down the road, “if and when we want to.”

💵 Companies seeking private credit: The recent economic volatility has caused a number of companies to eschew traditional lenders to secure funding from private credit firms, leading to an increase in direct lending deals over the past two months.

🪙 Americans’ crypto use: In a recent poll, 17% of Americans said that they have ever invested in or used cryptocurrency, with 8% doing so in the past year, with the bulk of users under 50 years of age.

🏢 Data center REIT demand: Data centers are one of the most in-demand asset types in real estate, with the lowest implied cap rates of any property type, showing that investors are willing to take lower returns to access the asset class.

💵 Strong PE returns: The six largest alternative asset managers saw their median private equity year-over-year returns hit 10% in Q1, with all posting positive quarterly numbers.

🎨 Shows of the summer: Exhibitions of Sherry Levine’s work in Aspen, Faith Ringgold’s in Atlanta, and George Morrison’s in New York are among the American exhibits listed in this roundup of the most anticipated global shows to see this summer.

Monday: 🪙 Bitcoin conference
Tuesday: 🤖 OpenAI device, 🪙 Crypto kidnappings
Wednesday: 🏡 Housing market update, 💵 PE fundraising
Thursday: 🚀 Circle IPO, 🏡 Luxury housing market

Have a great weekend!