Alternative Investing Report - May 1, 2025

Happy Thursday. Commercial real estate had a strong March, gold prices fell, the U.S. economy had its worst quarter in three years, and Meta released a new AI app. Let’s dive in!

🎫 Register: For our deep-dive into Bitcoin vs. Gold with the co-founder of Argo Digital Gold and co-founder of crypto media leader Milk Road. May 6 at 12 PM ET.

This issue is brought to you by AIR Insider - now offering a 2-week free trial of our expert investment picks.

📈 DAILY MARKETS

*as of 4/30; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

🏢 CRE UPDATE


There are signs that the commercial real estate market is turning around, as CoStar’s commercial repeat-sale indices saw price growth in March. Its value-weighted index was up 0.7% for the month with its equal-weighted index up 1.4%. Bigger sales can have an outsized influence on the value-weighted index while the equal-weighted index counts all transactions equally. Not all sectors performed the same, however, as office prices still struggled, falling 2.5% in Q1 and 9.2% year-over-year when weighted by value, though the equal-weighted index actually showed prices rising by 0.5% annually. The equal-weighted index showed that industrial prices fell by 1.1% in Q1, but were up 2.9% annually, retail gaining by 0.3% in Q1 and 1.9% annually, and multifamily showing the biggest decline, falling by 2.1% quarterly and 4.7% annually.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The data is showing that smaller transaction sizes are showing higher repeat sale gains than bigger transactions, which is why the equal-weighted indices are performing better. Within the office sector, it’s the big transactions holding down the value-weighted index, while annual price growth was positive in major markets like New York, San Francisco, Boston, and Los Angeles. It was the opposite for multifamily, which fared better in larger transactions (when value-weighted, it gained 1.1% annually) and worse in smaller transactions. Retail and industrial were similar across the board and continue to be the strongest performers in the asset class, though industrial has fallen significantly from prior years.

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💰 GOLD PRICES


Generally a stable asset, gold has been showing increased volatility in the past few weeks, ranging in price from $2,950 to $3,500 in April, and it’s now down nearly 8% from its all-time high only nine days ago. Though the U.S. economic data released yesterday was generally negative, it buoyed hopes for an interest rate cut, which sent gold prices down further.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Gold is an asset that investors turn to in times of instability, which is why it has performed well on the whole this year. However, with the stock markets seesawing and news about tariff policy seemingly switching every day or two, gold has not been immune to big swings. Still, most experts think that gold should continue to rise this year, as economic uncertainty around tariffs is not going away anytime soon.

📺 UPCOMING EVENT

Next Tuesday at 12 PM ET, join Vincent CEO Eric Cantor as he talks with Argo Digital Gold co-founder Peter Grosskopf, and Milk Road co-founder Kyle Reidhead about the competing stores of value - Bitcoin and Gold. The three will compare and analyze both assets and discuss how investors should approach them, particularly during tumultuous macro environments.

📰 NOTABLE NEWS

(CNN)


📉 U.S. GDP shrinks: Q1 data showed that the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%, significantly worse than expected, and well behind Q4’s 2.4% growth.

🤖 Meta’s new AI app: The tech giant launched a new AI app that will compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT app and has the advantage of having personal data gleaned from Facebook and Instagram to customize its answers.

🏡 Highest rent growth: Five of the ten top cities that saw that the highest rent growth in the last year are in the Midwest, but the list is topped by Newark, NJ, which saw an 8.1% year-over-year gain.

🪙 Crypto attacks double: Hackers stole more than $90 million in April, more than double the March number, all of which came from decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Users of DeFi always need to exercise extreme caution to ensure their funds are not at risk.

💎 Blue diamond pulled from auction: The $50 million 23-carat “Golconda Blue” fancy vivid blue diamond, which was to be the largest of its kind ever auctioned, is no longer hitting the block after the seller decided to keep it within his family.

🚀 VCs looking for flexibility: The industry is hoping that the new administration will enact legislation to exempt venture-related strategies from having to register as investment advisers, which would simplify the investment process.

🤖 AI CORNER


It’s no secret that many popular social media sites have become home to more and more AI bots posing as humans, often to influence public opinion. At a least a few of them, it turns out, were purposely sent to infiltrate a Reddit community by researchers from the University of Zurich. The bots went onto the “changemyview” forum and posed as humans with controversial opinions, including, ironically, that AI should be allowed to post on social media. Reddit is apparently considering legal action and called the researchers’ actions “unethical” but at this point, everyone on these platforms should know that the “person” they are talking to could very well not be a person at all.